Experts say that even though luck creates only 5 percent of the outcome of one’s success, it’s enough to almost ensure that the most skilled person winds up NOT the most successful.
“With 1,000 participants, the most skilled will “win” about 55 percent of the time.”
Interestingly, this 5% is enough support and that is where Kenya’s veteran politician Raila Odinga misses out. He is not a lucky man.
By 6:00pm on Monday, Kenya’s electoral body – the IEBC announced Deputy President, William Ruto, as the country’s 5th President. This was after he garnered 50.49% against Odinga’s 48.85%.
Ruto’s win is a kick in the teeth for President Uhuru Kenyatta, who backed Odinga.
Ruto and Kenyatta had formed a loose alliance in 2013 that saw them control State House for two terms. However in 2018 following the famous “handshake”, Uhuru ditched Ruto for Odinga.
Ruto also becomes the first presidential candidate in Kenya to win the election at the first time of asking. Kibaki failed in 1997 while Kenyatta failed in 2002.
To keep with Odinga, though, his loss following a shot at Kenya’s top most seat is the 5th since 1997.
He has lost against four of Kenya’s five presidents. In 1997, he lost to Arap Moi, in 2007 he lost to Mwai Kibaki, in 2013 and 2017 he lost to Uhuru Kenyatta, now he has lost to Ruto, who was his running mate in 2007.
Ruto is expected to be sworn in two weeks from now in case there is no legal challenge to his election. He will govern with Rigathi Gachagua as his deputy.
Money in politics
Elections are supposed to give people choices.
When it comes to the economic backgrounds of politicians, however, voters rarely have any option but to cast their votes for someone vastly better off than the average citizen.
According to an article first published in the Washington Post six years ago, the candidate with more money usually wins, and that the advantage is more pronounced down-ballot.
But this is not the case with Odinga. Odinga is one of Kenya’s wealthiest men. His net worth is estimated to be over KSh 55billion. The 77-year-old is into real estate, agriculture and petroleum among others.
For instance, Odinga owns Pan African Petroleum Company. Established in 2005, the company deals with the importation and distribution of petroleum products and has a turnover of over KSh 500million. But despite his wealth, voters continue to turn his leadership abilities down.
